Research paper: Short-Term Ambient Temperature Forecasting for Smart Heaters

Danilo Carastan-Santos; Anderson Andrei Da Silva; Alfredo Goldman; Angan Mitra; Yanik Ngoko; Clément Mommessin; Denis Trystram


Maintaining Cloud data centers is a worrying challenge in terms of energy efficiency. This challenge leads to solutions such as deploying Edge nodes that operate inside buildings without massive cooling systems. Edge nodes can act as smart heaters by recycling their consumed energy to heat these buildings.
We propose a novel technique to perform temperature forecasting for Edge Computing smart heater environments. Our approach uses time series algorithms to exploit historical air temperature data, smart heaters’ power consumption and temperature to create models to predict short-term ambient temperature over one hour horizon.
We implemented our approach on top of Facebook's Prophet time series forecasting framework, and we used the real-time logs from Qarnot Computing as a use-case of a smart heater Edge platform.
Our best trained model yields ambient temperature forecasts with less than 2.66% Mean Absolute Percentage Error.